The End is Coming (and other cynical musings): Be careful with your eggs

March 25th, 2007 - Hugo Chavez, newly re-elected president of Venezuela has announced that oil exports and economic relationships would be reduced to a minimum towards the United States and greatly increased towards China. Chavez's action follows his massive effort to nationalise the oil industry and his equally massive effort to increase hostility and cut all economic dependence on the United States.

Venezuela's socialist government is a well known detractor of the republican US administration and has been promoting this animosity throughout South America. Much as Fidel Castro has done in the past 40 years. Chavez basically aims to place all his eggs in the same basket by favouring a potential winner of the upcoming economic wars. He states that ''The United States as a power is on the way down, China is on the way up. China is the market of the future," (BBC News service), a gamble that could pay off if he is right but could be equally disastrous if he is wrong.

China's economic expansion in the past decade has been unmistakably staggering but such an explosion could have devastating effects such as inflation and devaluation of markets in the long term. The sleeping dragon has awoken but he may just eat everything and everyone and go back to bed, leaving a tattered and ruined nation. Japan felt this in the 1980s when their explosive economic expansion peaked, crashed and stabilised at extremely low levels for two decades.

Historically, many have taken a chance on the next potential 'superpower', notable examples of catastrophic gambles occurred in Antiquity and Contemporary Europe.

In the 3th and 2rd centuries BC, the Roman Republic was beginning its wild expansion and thus was starting to collide with other great powers, notably, Carthage. The three wars with Carthage lasted for a century and presented a crucial dilemma for all the smaller powers that surrounded or were surrounded by them. Certain cities in the Northern (Etruria) and Southern (Campagnia) regions of Italy, controlled by a people called the Etruscans, had been allied to the Roman conqueror for centuries but a few of these decided to place their faith in Carthage during the conflicts. Since most people know very little of Carthage, you can guess that Rome achieved a decisive victory over them before selling the remaining population into slavery, destroying all buildings, salting the earth and cursing the land. Similar fates awaited the defectors who chose the wrong 'superpower'. Crushing financial tributes and thousands of hostages were demanded of them. The gamble went horribly wrong.

In the 1930s, many European powers had to come to terms with radical communist and fascist movements stirring their populations. Certain eastern nations succumbed to them. Notably, during the Second World War, Croatia sided with Nazi Germany. Their fascist leaders, Anté Pavelic and his Oustachis, volunteered the opening of internment camps where hundreds of thousands of Jews, homosexuals, Gypsies and Serbs were killed. Little Adolf didn't win for many reasons I won't elaborate and the following communist government of Yugoslavia had the Oustachis tried and executed. Slovakia also sided with Germany and their subsequent communist government also had all involved tried, convicted and executed. From the start, the choice was even easier for Croatia and Slovakia, they could have picked the allies or the commies but they chose the Nazis. The gamble went horribly wrong.

The next 5-10 years holds our answer to the many questions brought about by the Venezuelan gamble. Are the United States headed for economic and political mediocrity as the former superpowers of time have (Egypt, Italy, Spain, Germany, England, France)? Will China fulfill their immeasurable potential? Will the Bush administration have Reagan's contra soldiers (American soldiers who assassinated Latin American leaders in the 80s) sent to assassinate Chavez? Will Exxon Mobil and Chevron have Reagan's contra soldiers sent to assassinate Chavez? Will the Imperialist Swiss Overlords get involved? Does anyone in the Western World care about Venezuela? No? Then never mind.