2008 Poll Results and News Round-Up

With a rather slow news week and a year 2009 well under way, here are the poll results for the second half of 2008.

The question was: "What is the next most likely global conflict", and the results were absolutely fascinating. Whether the news reflected tensions between Russia and the European Union, tensions within the Union or tensions in the Middle-East, the votes would dramatically shift towards a different answer.

Only 1% or 1 vote went to a war between South-East Asia and NATO. I find this theory interesting seeing as SE Asia would have a lot more soldiers than NATO and Indonesia IS the biggest Muslim country on the planet (and thus the biggest de facto enemy of America and its allies). Fortunately, relations between the two regions are friendly and stable.

A further 2% or 4 votes went to the option of an all-out African war. This low favour was very surprising considering the civil wars in Sudan, Algeria, Congo, Rwanda, Burundi, Malawi, Equatorial Guinea, Zimbabwe and Western Sahara to name a few. I found it only natural that the thousands of ethnic groups of the dark continent would eventually rise up to redefine their space (Ancient colonial boundaries imposed by European colonialists and based on natural resources rather than tribal and ethnic tradition). It seems as though others don't fear this apocalyptic outcome.

The third option, and my personal favorite, saw 7% or 12 votes go to a renewed war (maybe cold, maybe white hot) between the Russian federation and NATO. I can imagine the renewed struggle for Russian or American influence in ancient Soviet states, in China, in the Third World. I also imagine a renewed race to send a man to Mars by 2020 and to develop new bomb technology that would be reminiscent of James Bond-type deathrays. Oh well, people are not as obsessed with Putin and the good-old cold waras I am (impending nuclear doom makes you think).

More concretely, the prospect of a great European Union civil war seems to have roused my European fans. With 35% or 58 votes, all is not well with the great Euro family. Not everyone has been happy with the inclusion of poor countries in with the rich ones or about the favoritism certain countries seem to enjoy or simply the flat out racism involved with associating the different ethnic groups of Europe. I could imagine a scandinavian bloc negotiating neutrality just after invading the Baltic states. I can see Switzerland invading Luxembourg, Southern France and Northern Italy to creat a Great Switzerland. I can see Germany building a great big titanium wall around themselves sporting banners that say "we are staying out of this one". I can even see old Hapsburg descendants assassinate the parliaments of Austria and Hungary, recreating the legendary empire and subjugating the Balkans. I guess this will be for another time. This result long held the prime position in our poll yet the recent events of Israel and Palestine finally shifted it a different way.

With a whopping 55% or 90 votes, my readers believe that an invasion of the Middle-East is the context and catalyst of the next major global conflict. I thought long and hard how to interpret this and I came to the conclusion that the results could possibly have been very different if the poll was conducted in 2009. With a new Democrat in the White House and a general recession, bordering on depression for some, the potential invasion of a dozen countries is much less desirable for the Western powers. The United States would not dare invade anyone else at the moment due to lack of economic means and motivations. Furthermore, Obama is like Jesus II (the return) and would never do such a vile thing. I prefer another possibility than the classic American imperial war machine creeping up on the ancient biblical lands.

Since this poll result is not very specific, let me propose a differing context. With increasing consumer power and a growing middle class, China will soon need incredible amounts of fossil fuels to power their economy and society. Furthermore, major producers such as Russia, the United States, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Canada may not be so forthcoming to export all their oil to the same nation and thus create the next superpower to be dominated by. As reserves dry up by 2025-27, China may become desperate and will envisage the powering of their economy by any means necessary. They may offer to assist the American President (presumably Chelsea Clinton) to help out their mission in Iraq and anti-terror raids in Afghanistan and as such will slowly extend their communist influence in the region. By 2032, the Communist party of China will have organised elections in each Middle-Eastern country, influencing the election of Pro-China Communist presidents and ministers everywhere from Egypt to Pakistan. As such, the Middles-Eastern countries will vote in bloc to remove the Western military forces and will form a united confederation loyal to China. Around 2040, they will have a combined military force that will pressure the exodus of Israel and thus the ultimate recuperation of the Holy land.

It may seemed a bit far-fetched but if you are willing to fear an invasion of the Middle-East as the next global conflict, I propose that my way is the most probable since it follows a well-established historical pattern. In the 40s and 50s, the Soviet Union slowly began imposing their influence on specific countries. They eventually installed puppet gouvernments, close economic ties and even military unity and loyalty.


Round-up

Here is another intereting story going on this week - I also suggest a few interesting historical links to this story (click).

-Feb. 16th, 2009: 2 nuclear submarines collide
-Apr. 26th, 1986: Chernobyl Nuclear reactor goes critical
-Mar. 1st, 1954: US Bomb makes islands unihabitable forever

(Pictured: 1989, Chinese tanks confront protesting Students in Beijing, a clear sign that the officials of China do not mess around with such things as negotiation - The future overlords of Arabia)

End.