Defcon 1

Wednesday May 27th, 2009 – Kim Jong-Il, communist dictator of North Korea, has pulled out of the ceasefire agreement that ended the Korean War in 1953. After Jong-Il’s weeklong boasting of his new nuclear arsenal and testing of long-range launch systems, the automatic answer of the Western World (see US administered NATO) was to impose economic and diplomatic sanctions. This is already the umpteenth time that such penalties were imposed on Pyongyang and North Korean Communism and as we all see, it has had lasting positive results.

Jong-il announced the scrapping of the tenuous treaty that defined the South-North Korean border and averted a nuclear denouement during the cold war. The immediate effects are moderate although drastic: all foreign ships off of North Korea’s coast will be fired upon. Nevertheless, America and Europe are very worried but nowhere near as much as their Asian allies. Interviews with South Koreans and people from Japan unmistakably evoke Hiroshima and Nagasaki, events that have become cinematic in the West but which remain fresh on the alarmed minds of Asia.

There are clearly two options to the immediate aftermath of this act of war. Firstly, as has been the case multiple times before, the United-States will fold and offer oil, money and other economic incentives to coerce North Korea back into a less aggressive position. The caveat here is that President Jong-Il is clearly nearing the end of his life and may very well want to go out with a literal bang. Secondly, war could be declared on North Korea by a United Nations resolution (such a declaration has not formally happened since World War II) and a frantic invasion will be launched. Most probably within a day of declaration, troops will occupy Pyongyang at great loss of life in the hope of deposing the current government before they can launch everything. This second option may be weighing more heavily now on the minds of the deciders than ever because every passing day brings North Korea closer towards the technological ability to launch a preemptive global thermonuclear strike. Unfortunately, there is also a caveat here (apart from the obvious death of potentially millions), it is that President Obama and the Democrats are not necessarily the administration that would take such action after the Iraq debacle.

I am apprehensive and nervous for the near future, bearing the panic of the millions of people that can’t even put North Korea on a map and only know Kim Jong-Il as a funny Asian puppet in the movie Team America World Police.

A slap on the wrist

The historical parallel here is quite simple; imposing economic sanctions on a country that does something uneighbourly has NEVER solved anything. At best, it has postponed the inevitable.

In the 1930s for example, Japan launched a large-scale amphibious invasion of China, raping, pillaging and usurping as they went. The League of Nations (precursor to the UN) imposed heavy economic sanctions on the land of the rising sun and no, it did not convince Tokyo’s war council to drop everything and apologize. In fact, they left their seat at the League of Nations and would eventually declare war on all the western nations.

Similarly for Italy, Mussolini was penalized for his blatant and unfair invasion of Ethiopia in 1935, a desperate attempt to endow Italy with a colonial empire just like the big boys. It was unfortunately 30-50 years too late for that and France and England wagged their finger at Rome. It was no longer okay to subjugate the Third World…if you weren’t France or England that is. As a result, Italy also pulled out of the League of Nations and allied themselves with the only European power that didn’t shun them, Nazi Germany.

Finally, the United States has imposed an economic embargo on communist Cuba for half a century. The first result is that the Communist regime, championed by Fidel Castro who will seemingly never die are still as strong as they were in 1959. The second one is that the people suffer. Despite the extraordinary literacy rate and accessible universal healthcare system, it is very much a developing country with extreme poverty, limited human rights and no access to a Big-Mac or Coca-Cola.

In parting, I encourage you to read up on North-Korea, the 1953 Korean War armistice and the nuclear threat they pose today. It may soon be very much in the news and the cause of an international reshaping of alliances and war plans.

(Pictured: Cuba's Fidel Castro and the USSR's Nikita Khruschev teamed up during the Cuban missile crisis of 1963 - Russia is one of Communist North Korea's neighbours that is not so worried.)

End.