Be careful with your eggs

March 25th, 2007 - Hugo Chavez, newly re-elected president of Venezuela has announced that oil exports and economic relationships would be reduced to a minimum towards the United States and greatly increased towards China. Chavez's action follows his massive effort to nationalise the oil industry and his equally massive effort to increase hostility and cut all economic dependence on the United States.

Venezuela's socialist government is a well known detractor of the republican US administration and has been promoting this animosity throughout South America. Much as Fidel Castro has done in the past 40 years. Chavez basically aims to place all his eggs in the same basket by favouring a potential winner of the upcoming economic wars. He states that ''The United States as a power is on the way down, China is on the way up. China is the market of the future," (BBC News service), a gamble that could pay off if he is right but could be equally disastrous if he is wrong.

China's economic expansion in the past decade has been unmistakably staggering but such an explosion could have devastating effects such as inflation and devaluation of markets in the long term. The sleeping dragon has awoken but he may just eat everything and everyone and go back to bed, leaving a tattered and ruined nation. Japan felt this in the 1980s when their explosive economic expansion peaked, crashed and stabilised at extremely low levels for two decades.

Historically, many have taken a chance on the next potential 'superpower', notable examples of catastrophic gambles occurred in Antiquity and Contemporary Europe.

In the 3th and 2rd centuries BC, the Roman Republic was beginning its wild expansion and thus was starting to collide with other great powers, notably, Carthage. The three wars with Carthage lasted for a century and presented a crucial dilemma for all the smaller powers that surrounded or were surrounded by them. Certain cities in the Northern (Etruria) and Southern (Campagnia) regions of Italy, controlled by a people called the Etruscans, had been allied to the Roman conqueror for centuries but a few of these decided to place their faith in Carthage during the conflicts. Since most people know very little of Carthage, you can guess that Rome achieved a decisive victory over them before selling the remaining population into slavery, destroying all buildings, salting the earth and cursing the land. Similar fates awaited the defectors who chose the wrong 'superpower'. Crushing financial tributes and thousands of hostages were demanded of them. The gamble went horribly wrong.

In the 1930s, many European powers had to come to terms with radical communist and fascist movements stirring their populations. Certain eastern nations succumbed to them. Notably, during the Second World War, Croatia sided with Nazi Germany. Their fascist leaders, Anté Pavelic and his Oustachis, volunteered the opening of internment camps where hundreds of thousands of Jews, homosexuals, Gypsies and Serbs were killed. Little Adolf didn't win for many reasons I won't elaborate and the following communist government of Yugoslavia had the Oustachis tried and executed. Slovakia also sided with Germany and their subsequent communist government also had all involved tried, convicted and executed. From the start, the choice was even easier for Croatia and Slovakia, they could have picked the allies or the commies but they chose the Nazis. The gamble went horribly wrong.

The next 5-10 years holds our answer to the many questions brought about by the Venezuelan gamble. Are the United States headed for economic and political mediocrity as the former superpowers of time have (Egypt, Italy, Spain, Germany, England, France)? Will China fulfill their immeasurable potential? Will the Bush administration have Reagan's contra soldiers (American soldiers who assassinated Latin American leaders in the 80s) sent to assassinate Chavez? Will Exxon Mobil and Chevron have Reagan's contra soldiers sent to assassinate Chavez? Will the Imperialist Swiss Overlords get involved? Does anyone in the Western World care about Venezuela? No? Then never mind.

(Pictured: Hannibal during the Second Punic War, Flag of fascist Croatia 1941-1945, Hugo Chavez after his release from prison in 1994)

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Scared of the gay maybe?

March 16^th 2007 – U.S. presidential candidate and republican senator of Kansas Sam Brownback declared that homosexual acts are immoral and are akin to adultery. He also announced that «gays» shouldn’t serve openly in the military and encouraged legislation to enforce this.

My opinion is here tainted with the bias of an atheistic heterosexual and by no means represents any interest group.

Senator Brownback «mountain» seems to have run out of real issues to debate because this is one that has been overdone and widely discovered as a useless one. The debate is over. The Bible describes homosexuality (a dozen entries, some vague) as a wicked act "And with a man you shall not lie with as a man lies with a woman; it is an abomination." (Leviticus.18:22). The matter is therefore closed, if you are a religious person of the Catholic or Jewish faiths, homosexuality is a sin and sins are bad.

The only point of protest I make here is, hypocrisy is not mentioned as being a sin. Many devout followers of God and his little black Book eat «unclean» animals such as pork, shrimp and camels. Many of them indulge in a little gluttony, lust and/or rage once in a while. These things are not important you would say but it is made explicit that these are sins, some of them mortal sins that will hike up a hefty purgatory sentence. Furthermore, the clergy seems to indulge in sins that are also legally criminal and have done so for over a millennium. The Pope Alexander IV Borgia amassed large riches, concubines and scandals in the fifteenth century and Pope Jean-Paul II supervised a campaign to demonize condoms in Africa; instead, he promoted abstinence on a continent where sex represents the only means of fun.

Why would certain sins, that are explicit in the Bible, be okay once in a while but homosexuality is a matter to be condemned and massively protested against?

On the other hand, a strictly political and legal hand, 1970s and 1980s Canadian Prime Minister Pierre Elliot Trudeau said it best: «there's no place for the state in the bedrooms of the nation». We effectively have a separation of church and state in most countries of the world (Iran and the Vatican aside) so the quote applies and the Bible is not to provide a context for legislation.

THERE. Matter solved, homosexuality is not here to be debated, it is just here. Get on with your life Mr. Senator, there must be more important things on your to do list, for example, the grass is getting a bit long in your front yard, go fourth and mow.

In History, The ancient Athenians liberalised and encouraged homosexuality with an older mentor, in the seventeenth century, real pirates of the Caribbean engaged in it to pass the time (on this, see the book Sodomy and the Pirate Tradition: English Sea Rovers in the Seventeenth Century Caribbean, 1995) and finally in 1974, the Diagnostic and Statistics Manual in psychology deemed it «not a mental illness», although we had to wait for the nineties for them to remove «sexual orientation disturbance» and «gender identity disorder».

I am not condoning or refuting the practise of homosexuality anymore than I condone or refute the practise of dancing. It is a moot point and a very weak campaigning technique.

End.

The Swiss are coming! And they have little knives.

Despite having a landlocked country in the Alps, the Swiss are not above maintaining a working naval force. Also, the obligatory military service of Switzerland means that this paragon of neutrality has one of the biggest armies per capita on the planet. We must not be blinded by their chocolate and cuckoo clocks, the Swiss are coming.

On March 3^rd, 2007, a first incursion of Swiss imperialism occurred on the Swiss/Liechtenstein border when a company of 171 Swiss «shock troops» crossed for some harmless recon. They made it two kilometers before turning back, we are told that it was an accident and that the whole thing should be shrugged off as an amusing ephemerid. The media buys it. They know nothing! Back in 1985, the same excuse was given when several Swiss ballistic missiles where fired for testing and «accidentally» landed in Liechtenstein.

The Swiss are preparing for war and the small principality at its Northeast will be the first to suffer the yolk of the Tyrolean oppression.

Exaggeration? Maybe. Overdramatic? Almost certainly, but it wouldn’t be the first time that a quiet country silently builds up military might and unleashes unsuspected hell upon the world.

In 1607, some settlers landed on a rock and founded Jamestown Virginia. Following that, for over a hundred and fifty years, the American colonists seemed like a friendly bunch of people that were much better off that the French colonists of the north who were battling frostbite, natives, famine and possibly bears. The settlers of the 13 colonies were prosperous slave merchants, farmers and «participants» in the mercantilistic triangular trade. One day, the Americans were confident enough to put down the farm tools and destroy all things British in the new world. Who knew they had such hidden military strategy and potential, certainly not the British, French or Spanish whom all succumbed to the territorial expansion of These «United» States (I place the word united in parenthesis to emphasis the irony of the impending civil war).

Similarly, when Hitler brilliantly thought that he could fight victoriously on two fronts at once and invaded the Soviet Union, he had no idea that the Reds had stayed home after the revolution and the wars of 1918-1922 to train and build. Millions had been grouped into militias and all food production was diverted to military mass production. They weren’t eating well but they sure pulled a «Napoleon» on old Adolf. Stalin’s following expansion led to the formation of the Danzig-Trieste iron curtain and to the cold war.

Now I am not saying that Swiss imperialism would not be a good thing but I am just saying to be careful. Perhaps they even have the bomb. I know, I know, no one really knows anything about Liechtenstein (I had to look up the spelling) but then again, no one knew anything about Afghanistan in early 2001. Think about it.

(Pictured: The flag of the first 13 American colonies - an imperial Swiss army knife)

End.

Crimes by humanity, against humanity

(Disclaimer: This post may contain optimism due to the interest I personally have in this subject)

February 26th, 2007 – It has been nearly twelve years since the massacre of Srebrenica in 1995 that made just under twenty thousand victims in just under a month. The International criminal tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) determined a few years back that this episode constituted an act of genocide on the part of the Belgrade government at the time under Slobodan Milosevic. Along with this last head of state, which regretfully died before his trial ended, such characters as Ratko Mladic (General in charge of the Srebrenica incident) as well as Radovan Karadzic (Bosnian Serb leader) have been mandated to appear in court at The Hague, Belgium. These last two are still on the run, rumoured to be hidden by the Serbian Orthodox Church as well as by the Serbian and Montenegrin police forces. The European Union has said that Serbia and Montenegro will have to hand over these two as well as other «war criminals» before their candidacy can be taken seriously.

A second party was also being judged in The Hague until today, the Serbian and Montenegrin people. It definitely is a much more controversial subject as well as a very vague one to judge. The ICTY "ruled that Serbia and Montenegro had violated the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide by not preventing or punishing the perpetrators of the genocide" (BBC News Service) in accordance to the Geneva Convention. Despite these findings, the Serbian and Montenegrin people as a whole were found innocent of the Bosnian/Muslim genocide of 1995.

The verdict has two important, direct consequences; firstly, the Serbian and Montenegrin peoples will not have to ‘do time’ by apologising and carrying this burden of internationally recognised guilt for decades if not centuries. Secondly, the Serbian and Montenegrin peoples/gouvernments can not be dragged in front of international tribunals by Bosnian/Muslim class-action suits that aim financial restitution. A very important, indirect consequence of the verdict is the improvement of diplomatic relations between Serbia and Bosnia-Herzegovina as well as between Serbia and Croatia who were also invaded by the Serbian army (APY) in 1992.

Inevitably, this week’s historical link is with the condemning of the German and Austrian people following the First and Second World Wars. The Germanic populations of Europe carry the burden of Wilhelm II’s aggression in 1914 and the Nazi Regime/holocaust of 1938-1944. They have collectively been found guilty in various treaties of not preventing certain atrocities that have lead to over a hundred-million deaths. I am certainly an advocate for nuancing this accusation of ultimate responsibility, we could likely make a case for the non-intervention of France under Daladier and Great-Britain under Chamberlain when they simply sat by (and even signed a treaty in Munich) and allow Hitler to invade and take control of Czechoslovakia in 1938. It is certainly a thing of the past on which we cannot come back on by the touchiness of the subject. Nevertheless, the financial and especially moral burden that Germany carries is still visible decades later as is demonstrated when the German chancellor apologised to the Jewish people of the world and when all Nazi or extreme-right activities and merchandise is explicitly illegal.

Responsibility lies with the aggressor and with provokers but I believe that generalised responsibility should not be carried indefinitely by people that were present without participation as well as by their children and their grand-children. Reconstruction and reconciliation in the Balkans must go through a time-demanding process of forgiveness and cooperation, as Germany and Austria went through, to resolve the loose ends of the destructive wars (1992-2001) across the peninsula.

(Pictured: The current German flag with its crest)

End.

a cure, A CURE!

Last week, a Canadian laboratory mapped out the genetic components and structure of type two diabetes. This debilitating and widespread condition is caused by a genetic defect causing insulin resistance; it is the fastest spreading type of diabetes and the CDC (center for disease control) are characterising the increase as an epidemic. Merely 5 years after scientists have finished mapping the human genome, a medical revolution is nearing. With this discovery and other experimental trials, such as an AIDS vaccine that is being tested on thousands of Africans, we are on the verge of seriously altering our way of life.

Medical breakthroughs and eradication of widespread diseases such as Cancer, AIDS, Tuberculosis and general heart disease, will have massively important consequences such as the considerable extension of lifespan.

In late eighteenth century France, England and Germany, the removal of flowing sewage in the streets by creating underground networks of pipelines greatly improved the general hygiene of the metropolitan populations. The British parliament could not hold session anymore because the scent from the Thames River was so overpowering and nauseating. It was said in the early nineteenth century, that Berlin could be smelled from 10 Km away. The improvement reduced the virulence and prevalence of infectious diseases (Plague notably) that had decimated European urban centers in the past centuries. Consequently, the life expectancy from the 1800s to the 1960s almost tripled in Western Europe and North America.

Without exaggerating, I believe we could expect a similar process by eliminating the diseases that plague this early 21st century. A dramatic increase in life spans, let's say from 80 to 130 would call for the rethinking of every infrastructure of the known world, may it be political, economic, social or even cultural. The reason why an American president must be 35 to hold office is because when this rule was instated, 35 was above middle-aged. New rules would be applied, despots would rule for decades upon decades, economic progress would have to be measured in a different way and social support programs would have to be readjusted.

Another consequence of hygiene and medical breakthroughs in renaissance and industrial Europe was the development of a strong middle class. Today, the possibility of working more years or spending more years in college represents the possibility of social mobility where there was formerly a very strict hierarchy. The working class could create a larger capitalist bourgeoisie but this in no turn guarantees a positive outcome for the lower classes and the ultimately poor. New legislation caused by these breakthroughs would assuredly keep the poor at their helpless level and increase the riches of the upper echelons. This is (unfortunately or not) how a capitalist economy works and a revolution in this field, as the French revolutionaries tried in the 1790s or the soviets tried in 1917, is foolish without much theoretical study and, more importantly, more practical application studies.

Perhaps I am presenting this in a futuristic or Orwellian perspective but we must be realistic, a medical revolution in today's world will overturn all our preconceived notions of society. In accordance with Maslow's pyramid of human needs, when our basic fears and preoccupations with health will be lessened or eradicated, society will move up and worry about less primal things. Who knows, maybe more people will realise that they are a spec in the timeline and that by working and limiting themselves to a dead-end job, they are simply waiting to pass into oblivion. Maybe the next, healthy generation will get involved with their increased free time.

(Pictured: Sewers - DNA or deoxyribonucleic acid strands)

End.